Economy bumps education as priority

Nearly half of Michigan residents surveyed say they want the governor and Legislature to focus on the economy and creating jobs, preliminary results released recently by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) at MSU show.

Those results buck a trend in the 1990s that put education on the top of residents’ list in IPPSR’s State of the State Survey (SOSS).

More than 47 percent of residents surveyed rated the economy and jobs tops on their minds, compared to 41 percent a year ago.

The results underscore what has been a substantial increase in concern about the economy and jobs since 2001, said Larry Hembroff, the Office for Survey Research (OSR) director and senior survey methodologist.

“It’s important for the Legislature and the governor’s office to know that, overwhelmingly, the citizens of the state think that stimulating the economy, that getting people back to work, is what they’re asking them to do,” Hembroff said.

The most recent survey is ongoing, but preliminary data based on about 600 interviews also show an increase in people who are less confident about their current economic condition.

Almost 42 percent feel they are worse off than they were a year ago, while 31 percent feel they are better off. The highest point for this question was in 1999, when 59 percent said they thought they were better off and 18 percent thought they were worse off.

Any optimism is tied to party affiliation. Republicans see themselves as much better off now than Democrats, and are more likely to see this year as better than last and next year as better than this.

Democrats are more pessimistic, seeing last year as better than now, and expect next year to be worse. The attitudes of respondents who identified themselves as independents are virtually identical to those of Democrats.

Other results in the current survey show that:

• Forty-six percent of respondents think Gov. Jennifer Granholm is doing an excellent or good job, and 61 percent approve of the Legislature’s job.
• Only 38 percent rate President George W. Bush’s job performance as excellent or good. The height of his approval was in the winter 2002 SOSS, with 77 percent rating his performance as good or excellent.
• When asked whether they believe government does what is right, the majority said they do nearly always to at least some of the time at the federal level (77 percent), state level (86 percent) and at the local level (84 percent).

OSR researchers expect to use final survey results to improve the reliability of economic activity predictions in the state.

Results are expected to be available as early as mid-March.

Traditionally, economists have based these predictions on equations called a linear model. Adding the SOSS data to this model will cut the error rate in those predictions by more than half, said Nat Ehrlich, an OSR research specialist.

“If you’re in government and you’re putting together a budget, you want to know what to expect in terms of sales tax revenue,” Ehrlich said. “The information on whether there will be more or less than expected in revenue will help government officials determine whether or not spending decreases are needed or additional services can be afforded.” This data is also a more accurate prediction of consumer demand for business leaders, Ehrlich added. 

IPPSR’s Office for Survey Research conducts numerous surveys on social and political issues, including the annual State of the State Survey, a telephone survey of 1,000 Michigan residents. The statewide survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent.

IPPSR is the nonpartisan public policy network at MSU. Housed within the College of Social Science, IPPSR is dedicated to connecting legislators, scholars and practitioners through survey, evaluation and applied research, policy forums and political leadership instruction.

For additional information about IPPSR, visit www.ippsr.msu.edu

Copyright 2001 Michigan State University Division of University Relations.